The Illusion of Free Will or Why Marketing Works

Some time ago, I have written about predictive analytics, which describes, among other things, the essential idea behind my previous startup Placedise.

A major point of discussion there is always the idea of “free will”. Many believe that behavior can neither be influenced nor predicted, since man has a free will. But is this correct?

Let’s push this thought a little further.

Free will means in this argument that people always behave differently than one would predict it. If this were the case, the behavior would, however, again be predictable as it always would be the opposite of the original forecast. It might be objected that free will simply leads to a strong variance and that there is no pattern at all. But this is wrong and that’s where we need to talk about the manipulability of humans!

How are we influenced by external conditions?

Do you use the sidewalk or do you walk alongside the cars on the road?
If a movie starts at 8pm, would you go to the cinema at 11pm?
Do you wear the same clothes in winter as in summer?
Are you scared if you suddenly hear a loud explosion?
Do you eat something when you’re hungry?